Keep America In, China and Russia Out, and Iran Down

The Global Strategy Behind the U.S.’ Effort to Create an Israeli–Arab Alliance

Abstract

This article argues that the Trump administration’s core Middle East strategy – expanding the Abraham Accords into the wider Arab and Muslim world – reflects a renewed, Cold War-inspired containment of China and rollback of Iran. Normalisation between Israel and pivotal Arab countries, in particular Saudi Arabia, should be analysed through the prism of great power competition and as a potential catalyst for a broader geopolitical realignment between the Judeo-Christian and Islamic civilisations. The article situates Israeli–Arab normalisation and the significant investment of the U.S. in the region within the strategic imperative by the U.S. National Security Strategy to counter the emerging CRINK alliance – China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. These converging interests in the region will be measured across several key economic, diplomatic, and security-related indicators. It assesses how Iran’s nuclear programme and regional posture have reshaped Arab threat perceptions, prompting a departure from longstanding preconditions tying peace with Israel to the Palestinian issue. Events following the 7 October attacks, including the 2025 strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, the 2026 U.S.–Israeli military campaign in Iran, and the Gaza ceasefire agreement, are examined as accelerants of this shift. The article ultimately contends that an expanded Israeli-Arab peace would reinforce an American-led regional order at the expense of that of CRINK, further cementing its global dominance.