Nemzet és Biztonság – Biztonságpolitikai Szemle

Conceptual Model for Intentional Change in Violent Extremist Jihadist Organisations

Jose Lorenzo-Penalva Lucas — Thu, 15 Feb 2024 00:00:00 +0100

This paper explores a new approach to violent extremism through complex adaptive systems and system of systems analysis. Within both disciplines, the paper will show the simplified model developed about how violent extremist jihadist organisations learn, adapt, innovate or change in an intentional way. Because of its weakness, terrorists always look for the relative advantage and they reach it, among others, via learning, adaptation, innovation, ultimately, through intentional change. Understanding their dynamics intentional change will facilitate disrupting terrorist organisations.

China’s Militarisation and the Indian Ocean

Papp Gábor — Thu, 15 Feb 2024 00:00:00 +0100

What is behind Beijing’s increased assertiveness towards its regional neighbours? Many use the theory of transition of power: that China is becoming a superpower and it challenges the status quo, mostly the United States, and attempts to replace it globally.2 Others tend to believe that China’s real desire is to become a regional hegemon by establishing a China-centred sphere in Asia. Some believe that their only aim is to just simply overcome the “century of humiliation” from its recent past by continuing their economic boom. This paper presents a view that China is trying to reconstruct the status quo, and in order to do that the country needs to establish a China-centred Asia and most importantly a China-centred Indio-Pacific region. In its first section, this paper takes a look at the country’s incredible military modernisation by examining those events and leaders that pushed this development. Then, the section also points out how China plans to reconstruct the regional status quo with the help of its economic power. The second part aims to present the Indian Ocean region’s current status as a “battlefield” between China and India and why does it matter in the first place. Finally, in the third part the paper argues that the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue is the best tool to deter Beijing in the future and it must be strengthened properly by, among other things, a deepened U.S.–India defence cooperation.

The Role of the Currently Applicable Water Treaties in Conflict Resolution

Szolga Réka — Thu, 15 Feb 2024 00:00:00 +0100

The Middle East and South Asia are hydropolitical hotspots, where the competition for freshwater has dramatically increased and the amount of available resources decreased, due to several reasons. This paper offers an analysis about two water conflicts, in which relevant paragraphs of the international water law would only provide a temporary water conflict resolution, because present water treaties must be urgently updated to enhance hydropolitical resilience. Overexploitation of the water resources, development of the critical region’s hydroecological conditions, hydrohegemons’ unilateral decisions can be handled with an effective international water governance and waterpolitical reforms.

Changes in the Composition, Equipment and Tactics of the 1st Foreign Cavalry Regiment of the French Foreign Legion during the Indochina War

Bene Krisztián — Thu, 15 Feb 2024 00:00:00 +0100

For nearly a hundred years after its creation, the French Foreign Legion consisted exclusively of infantry units, supplemented only temporarily by “mounted” infantry units, depending on the needs of the theatre of operations. These units did not exceed the size of a company, and their members used their mounts (horses, mules, camels) only to move around, and continued to fight their battles on foot. Based on this positive experience, the 1^st Foreign Cavalry Regiment was created in 1922, and was then successfully deployed in Syria and Morocco between the two World Wars, and with varying effectiveness in France, Tunisia and Germany during the Second World War. The First Indochina War broke out in 1946 and the 1^st Foreign Cavalry Regiment joined the conflict in Southeast Asia in 1947, only to leave in 1955 as one of the last French units. During the war, the ranks of the troop, composed mainly of foreign nationals, were reinforced within a short time by a significant number of local soldiers to alleviate the permanent shortage. In addition, depending on local geography, the unit was equipped with armoured and amphibious vehicles, and sometimes ships, which were used to develop new tactics and operate effectively in these new and very different circumstances. In view of its successes, the unit was greatly improved, originally consisting of 7 squadrons, and by the end of the conflict it had grown to 18 squadrons.

Most Current Issues and Perspectives of the Urban Slum Problem in Kenya

Solymári Dániel, Czirják Ráhel — Thu, 15 Feb 2024 00:00:00 +0100

The paper examines the largest-scale historical slum development program, that has been running in Kibera, the biggest slum of Kenya, since the turn of the millennium: Kenya Slum Upgrading Programme (KENSUP) and its two projects Kibera Integrated Water, Sanitation and Waste Management Project (K-WATSAN) and Kibera Slum Upgrading Initiative (KSUI). The paper synthesises the available literature to examine the extent to which the objectives originally set for 2020 have been achieved. The study found that K-WATSAN was successful both in terms of actively involving the locals and improving their life conditions. However, KSUI did not utilise the experiences gained regarding the significance of community participation. Consequently, structural flaws emerge that call into question the actual fulfilment of the programme’s goals, as well as the programme’s sustainability.

Economic Development under the Authoritarian Military Rule in Thailand and Myanmar

Rahman Kazi Mohammad Mahbobor — Thu, 15 Feb 2024 00:00:00 +0100

The literature has been checked in this paper to understand how the contemporary research has answered the questions: How have the military regimes impacted economic development in Thailand and Myanmar, and why has Thailand achieved better economic development than Myanmar under military rule? By surveying major works, this systematic literature review argues that there seems to be limited research focusing on the comparative study of economic development in these two neighbouring countries during the authoritarian military rule. Therefore, an endeavour of a comparative study of these two most similar cases should be initiated to fill this research gap. It will facilitate a new understanding of the impact of military rule as a Cold War and post-Cold War phenomenon on better economic development in Thailand than in Myanmar, along with the causes of this variation.

The Transformation of the European Security Architecture as an Outcome of the Russian Aggression against Ukraine

Csiki Varga Tamás — Thu, 15 Feb 2024 00:00:00 +0100

Enabling Factors of Deepening the Visegrád 4 Defence Cooperation

Csiki Varga Tamás — Thu, 15 Feb 2024 00:00:00 +0100

The Visegrád countries occasionally step up as a “political block” through highly visible political declarations and began to practically expand their cooperation to include defence after 2011. This has often been considered a breakthrough achievement, but the long-term strategic prospects, the “depth” of this new formation of sub-regional defence cooperation is scarcely analysed. Based on European lessons learnt, this study offers a novel qualitative analysis focusing on the V4, measuring their cooperation in the light of enabling conditions of successful defence cooperation in the period 1999–2019. Reflecting on significant shortcomings identified, the author argues that much remains to be done if the V4’s ambitious strategic plans on defence, outlined until 2032, are to be realised, particularly regarding political and technical conditions.

Geospatial Crisis Index

Balog Péter — Thu, 15 Feb 2024 00:00:00 +0100

Security geography examines the military geography factors influencing the security system and environment of an area, and its investigation method is rooted in geography. The data set related to this, mainly open source databases, is a rapidly changing data set, so its analysis only shows the current state, but if the data set is large enough and considered mass data, it may be suitable for drawing new connections and conclusions for the future. A geospatial analysis system applicable to security geographic analysis is under development, which is continuously collecting data by taking predefined variables into account for a specific area of interest. The geospatial crisis index can be obtained from these local data following a professional analysis procedure based on predefined algorithms. This new index is a unitless numerical value issued by the geospatial evaluation and analysis system used to analyse crisis zones. It is a benchmark allowing areas to be compared in terms of a fixed risk factor or factors to be ranked in a hierarchy by fixing the area. This helps shape the order of the analysis, speeds up the actual text and map evaluation, reduces the need for human resources, and supports commanders in decision-making.

The Necessity of the Process of Modernisation of the Human Resources of the Military System

Elena-Alexandra Mazilu (Alexandrescu) — Thu, 15 Feb 2024 00:00:00 +0100

The field of human resources has an important role in the process of militarisation and it is necessary that human resources of the military system to adapt to all the transformations which are taking place. In recent years, the Romanian military system had to upgrade, to adapt and to transform all the structures, which are implied in ensuring national security. Those transformations entailed the necessity of modernisation of human resources of the military system because militaries have new responsibilities, they have to apply different procedures and in most of the cases, the way of working has changed. In order to adapt to all those changes, employees have to modernise and commanders are those who support them in this process of modernisation.
The deployment of military resources also implies an effective organisation of the military system, establishing clear procedures. Human resources are the first stakeholder in the modernisation process, which is why it is necessary to research this area in order to understand what the modernisation of human resources in the Romanian military system entails.

Cybersecurity Strategies in the Visegrád Countries

Urbanovics Anna — Thu, 15 Feb 2024 00:00:00 +0100

The European Union is one of the most developed regions with regard to its cyber policy. While 14 out of the top 15 countries based on the National Cybersecurity Index are European countries, the Central European region is in a semi-peripheral position being less developed in cybersecurity policy. The paper aims to evaluate four of these countries – namely the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia – often referred to as “Visegrád” countries, based on their cybersecurity policy. The region is geopolitically exposed to cyberattacks, however, only Poland follows a military approach in cyber policy development. The methodology is based on a mixed approach, consisting of the quantitative analysis of the countries based on international databases and a qualitative strategy analysis. The results indicate that the Czech Republic leads among the countries of the region. Although the countries of the region concentrate on the fight against cybercrime and personal data protection, other indicators such as the contribution to global cybersecurity policy allow further development.