Does the Russia-Ukraine War Justify the Enhancement of European Defense Capabilities?

Abstract

The aim of this study is to answer whether the strengthening of European defence capabilities is justified. In order to determine this, it analyses likely Russian intentions and capabilities, with a particular focus on the Russian perception of the conflict with the West and the war in Ukraine. The paper’s main argument is that, although Russia is unlikely to attack a NATO member state, the war in Ukraine is seen by Moscow as part of a hybrid war with the West, waged by non-military means, such as information and economic warfare. The trends in Russian force development show that the Kremlin is preparing to fight a large-scale war. In light of this, the strengthening of European defence potential is certainly justified.