The Risks of Inadvertent Escalation of Drone Incidents in the Middle Eastern Conflicts

Abstract

The number of military operations in the Middle East in which drones played a central role has significantly increased in 2019. A particularly remarkable example of this was the September 14, 2019 attack in which Yemen’s Houthi rebels – most likely with Iranian support – carried out strikes on Saudi oil installations. The analysis highlights that the growing number of drone incidents in the Middle East increases the possibility of a direct military confrontation and the chance of accidental and inadvertent escalation. Based on the available data, it seems that the use of drones reduces the risks at the tactical level while increases it at the strategic level.