Generation Change in Central Asia

Security and Stability after Mirziyoyev’s and Tokayev’s Rise to Power

Abstract

The past five years have significantly reshaped the regional security environment of Central Asia. With Uzbekistan’s Shavkat Mirziyoyev taking the presidency in 2016 and Kazakhstan’s Kassym-Zhomart Tokayev in 2019, the first changes of leadership were conducted in nearly three decades. The security and stability of the region are largely determined by the personal choices and priorities of the authoritarian leaders of its states, thus, the current generation change has triggered the most significant transformation in the region since the independence of the five republics. The aim of this paper is to review and assess the most important changes catalysed by Mirziyoyev and Tokayev’s rise to power, their regional impact, and their limitations. The paper first analyses the internal reforms in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, then reviews the results of enhancing regional cooperation, and finally focuses on the changes in the relationship with the great powers that maintain interests in the region.