The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on NATO Member States’ Strategic Thinking

Abstract

Artificial intelligence (AI) enabled technologies will fundamentally transform military capabilities during the next decade. Each military will have various reactions for these transformations, which can lead to the emergence of different dynamics within alliance frameworks. Therefore, this article analyses how will these reactions impact NATO member states’ strategic thinking concerning the use of AI. The article analyses and cross-references the Member State specific data published by the NATO Cooperative Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence (CCDCOE) in 2021, and it also compares the United States’, the United Kingdom’s and France’s AI defence strategies. The research sheds light on the emergence of parallel AI-enabled technology clusters within the alliance, which enhance fragmentation and limit interoperability among Member States. This highlights that, besides the already existing differences there is a new form of capability gap within NATO, and demonstrates that policies pursued by AI great powers are deepening intra-alliance fragmentations, while AI middle powers are more likely to procure AI-enabled capabilities from others, hence they can reach a higher level of interoperability within the alliance.