The Impact of Foreign Interventions on the Balance of Power in the Middle East – The Expanding Rivalry of Saudi Arabia and Iran

Abstract

Foreign interventions have become common phenomena of the international relations of the 21st century. Especially in the broader Middle East region, where in recent years one military intervention follows another, while we still do not have a comprehensive knowledge on their complex effects and long-term impacts. This paper shows how the regional patterns of power can be altered by an intervention, due to the redistribution of power among states. Following the short summary of the theoretical background, the author tracks the changes in the power capabilities of the target countries using two score-systems, the Composite Index of National Capabilities and the Fragile States Index in the cases of Afghanistan (2001), Iraq (2003) and Libya (2011), then sheds light on the relation of changing regional power patterns and foreign interventions. For this purpose, the study relies on the examples of the expanding rivalry of Riyadh and Tehran and the occasional temporary cooperation of Saudi Arabia and Israel. This will show that not only large-scale interstate wars, but foreign interventions can also change regional patterns of power through the redistribution of power.