The Demise of the INF Treaty

Abstract

The Treaty between the United States of America and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics on the Elimination of their Intermediate-range and Shorter-range Missiles, or in other words, the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF Treaty) has been in a crisis for a long time. In 2014, the United States has publicly accused Russia of violating the agreement. Over the past 5 years, the two sides have taken numerous diplomatic attempts to resolve the issue, but all of these attempts failed. On December 4, 2018, Secretary of State Michael Pompeo announced that the Trump Administration gave Moscow 60 days to resolve the compliance problem, otherwise they will withdraw from the INF Treaty. As Russia did not manage to address the concerns of Washington, the White House has officially submitted its withdrawal on February 1, 2019. According to the INF Treaty, the agreement will cease to be in effect six months after the withdrawal. During this timeframe, the two sides may take a last attempt to address their disagreements. However, it is more likely that in the current environment and in the obvious lack of political will, Washington and Moscow will soon start the research, development and unrestricted deployment of the weapons systems which were prohibited by the INF Treaty.