Global Trends and Risks in the 21st Century – The Second Decade

Abstract

From the beginning of the 21st century an increasing number of studies analysed the short and long-term processes and the evolving risks of the global world. One of the outstanding examples is the paper published every four-five years by the National Intelligence Council, a Washington-based organisation, under the title Global Trends. The other prestigious paper is the Global Risks Report by the World Economic Forum, published every year before the Davos Summit. This study summarises the ideas and arguments formulated in the documents published during the two previous decades in two parts and puts them in the context of the theory of international relations. The first part concentrates on global trends, while the second part, besides global trends, discusses global risks in connection with these trends. As we can observe based on these sources, forecasts in the second decade indicated the continuation of trends described in the previous decade with the addition of further considerations based on new developments. Trends identified in the second decade included economy, technology, climate change, demography, society, governance and conflicts in the light of recent events. The second part of the paper in addition to global trends discusses global risks and their potential impacts which are related to the global trends. During the years following the October 2008 global financial crisis, the uncertainties of economic recovery dominated the risks. From the middle of the decade, the attention of the expert community gradually turned towards climate change and its consequences. By the end of the decade both the likelihood and the impact of climate change became the dominant risk. Risks related to the attacks against information infrastructures came second after climate change at the 2019 Davos Forum. Among the gradually evolving medium and long-term risks, it is justified to highlight the ever-growing income and assets inequalities which – according to many experts – constitute the principle cause of social polarisation and political conflicts.