Strategic Diversification of the Serbian Air Force and Air Defence (2022–2025)

Abstract

The arms race generated by the Russian–Ukrainian war and the evolving international sanctions regime has fundamentally transformed the security architecture of the Western Balkans. In this context, the study examines the development of the capabilities of the Serbian Air Force and Air Defence between 2022 and 2025. The analysis is based on the hypothesis that Serbia – while formally maintaining its military neutrality – is pursuing “strategic diversification” driven by geopolitical survival and economic rationality. However, this process entails direct security risks that go beyond purely military-technical challenges. Belgrade’s force development strategy seeks a specific form of technological synthesis based on the parallel employment of systems of Russian, Chinese, and Western origin.The diversity of acquisitions, however, results in significant interoperability challenges and systemic vulnerabilities. In Serbian expert circles, two main theoretical models have emerged to address this problem: parallel operation based on the principle of “technological islands”, and a domestically developed hybrid integration solution-primarily the Serbian-developed “SA cVOJIN” automation system- to link the systems. While this strategy offers short-term geopolitical room for manoeuvre, the logistical and training burdens, as well as the security risks associated with technological diversification, may in the long run undermine operational effectiveness and increase the importance of personnel adaptability. The study relies on qualitative analysis, drawing on reports of the Serbian Ministry of Defence, as well as data from relevant professional portals (Balkan Security Network, Tango Six) and international organisations.