The Possible Future of Conventional Arms Control, The pre-World War I Period as a Model

Abstract

As a result of the Russian-Ukrainian war that began on February 24, 2022, the European security architecture was significantly damaged. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) underwent another expansion in 2023, and arms race gained another momentum. The situation created during the confrontation between NATO and the Russian Federation and the emphasis on deterrence is not conducive to international stability, and the situation is not easy as a result of the activities of rising China and the "hermit" North Korea, as well as the "bad boy on duty" Iran. Non-state actors, especially private military companies and terrorist organizations, appear as significant destabilizing factors. One of the reasons for this is the emergence of non-mass destruction weapons that can have a strategic effect, is the result of the technical progress. These challenges and threats cannot be dealt with by the use of armed force exclusively, but can also be dealt also with by implementing confidence- and security building measures and with arms control regimes. However, the current situation is not new. Before the First World War, in the period between 1900-1914, the world was similar to the current situation, underwent significant political, social, economic and military changes.