Teljes szám
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Tanulmány
The Effect of Demographic Trends on Competitiveness A Methodological Experiment to Calculate the Loss of Human Capital
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Magyarország Alaptörvénye [The Fundamental Law of Hungary]. 38. cikk. Online: https://njt.hu/jogszabaly/2011-4301-02-00"
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PDF (English)
The paper provides an overview of global demographic trends, including a brief description of the situation in the European Union and Hungary. It is important not only to monitor these processes, but also to identify their causes and consequences. This is also the focus of the study, which highlights the general link between current demographic trends and competitiveness. In particular, it focuses on measuring the loss of human capital due to emigration and attempts to quantify the loss of human capital in Hungary due to the youth and skills drain in the central regions.
The study is a desk study based on published national and international sources (databases, studies). The authors of the study calculated the loss of human capital using a proprietary methodology in order to draw attention to the fact that in ageing societies, the competition for young and skilled workers intensifies and undermines the competitiveness and economic performance of the countries concerned.
Are the Member States of the European Union Converging or Diverging Demographically?
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In our study, we have compared the demographic processes in the Member States that joined the European Union before and after 2004 with the variables total fertility rate, life expectancy, net migration and old-age dependency ratio. The demographic prospects for the new Member States are bleak, with high emigration and low total fertility rates, which may make ageing problems more pronounced among the Member States joining after 2004 than among those that joined earlier. Our cluster analysis has shown that the newly acceding countries, both in 2004 and today, show some degree of separation from the centre countries in terms of the demographic variables examined, but the stability of the clusters is relatively low depending on the methodologies used.
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This article analyses the legislative activity and connectedness of the Members of the European Parliament (MEP) who dealt with the topic of ‘demography’ in the 2019–2024 EP term. A novel dataset of legislative amendments was analysed to identify those MEPs who were the most active and connected in the last five years in this policy domain.
We found that MEPs from Spain, France and Germany were the most active ones and the ones from the S&D (Socialist & Democrats), RE (Renew Europe) and EPP (European People’s Party) groups. Slovenia and Hungary were the most impactful countries, while the number of successful amendments was the highest for RE, EPP and S&D.
The social network analysis identified the S&D Group as the biggest and most connected community, which was corroborated by the rankings of different network centralities. The rankings also highlighted that Spanish MEPs played a key role in the legislative network.
Child Protection and Legal Standards for Children in Criminal Justice with Regards to the EU Strategy on the Rights of the Child
67-85.
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Children are the most vulnerable members of our society and cannot manage the risk of poverty and social exclusion alone. Crimes against children are common. The European Unions’s (EU’s) Strategy on the Rights of the Child is a policy framework that enforces children’s rights as a horizontal issue in EU policies and legislation. The implementation aims to support European and national efforts to promote children’s well-being and reduce child poverty. The issue of age is of paramount importance from the point of view of criminal prosecution and applicable legal consequences, notably whether we speak about child protection or a criminal justice case. The EU Strategy on the Rights of the Child follows a holistic approach, and its overall goal is to create a better society in the EU and worldwide in six major areas, containing the child-friendly justice, which is in the focus of this study. The aim of the study is to explore the deepening of children’s rights in criminal proceedings, to list some relevant case law of the European Court of Justice (CJEU) and the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR), and to point out that the incorporation of European legal standards into Hungarian jurisprudence is crucial for improving the protection of children’s rights. The relationship between EU standards and child-friendly justice in Hungarian criminal proceedings is complex and requires careful consideration; it can help to ensure a more child-centred enforcement of children’s rights, while at the same time highlighting the European requirements already in place in our criminal proceedings.
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Over the past decades, the Member States of the European Union have increasingly become migration destination countries. This trend was reinforced by the migration and refugee crisis of 2015–16, which forced the European Community to reform its migration policy. However, reforming this policy area of shared competence has been more challenging than expected. The Council of the European Union adopted the New Pact on Migration and Asylum in May 2024. However, this act was a long time in the making and the undertaking is far from complete. This study, based on a literature review and document analysis, examines the process leading to the creation of the New Pact up until the decision of the Council of the EU.
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Translating the ‘green and digital transition’, which is a key element of the EU’s strategic objectives, into practice cannot fail to consider and adapt to the complex set of impacts of demographic change. Building the conditions for ‘longevity society’ also implies a paradigm shift towards active ageing, which is closely linked to the digital switchover and the development of the ‘silver economy’. Based on international and national statistical data, research and expert evidence, the paper argues that the successful coordination of these three pillars requires an integrated approach to public policy and the tailor-made introduction of diverse forms of competence development.
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Even today, some people believe that fewer children are being born because women have gone out to work, and that fertility would improve if women were allowed to stay at home. The experience of the last 60–70 years in Hungary and Central Europe is quite the opposite. Starting from this paradox, in the present research I sought to find out how fertility in the European Union and in the Member States is related to women’s participation in the labour market and to the financial situation of families.
The study shows that over the period 2009–2022, female employment rates are correlated with fertility in all Member States, with 19 countries showing a strong correlation, nine with a positive correlation and ten with a negative correlation. In the Eastern Bloc countries, Germany, Portugal, Greece and Austria, the fertility rate and female employment are positively correlated, while in the other countries the correlation is inverted.
Since the correlation only shows the strength and direction of the relationship, to find out which of the factors in the relationship cause the change in fertility, I performed a Granger causality analysis. The excess of the relative income poverty rate of those living in households with children over those without children was found to be causally related to fertility in most places, in 9 countries and in the European Union as a whole. In seven countries (Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Latvia, Portugal, Romania and Slovenia), low levels of excess child poverty are associated with higher fertility, and the opposite is true in Ireland and Italy. This was the only causal connection when looking at the 27 EU countries as a unit.
Too Little Too Late? An Overview of the European Union’s Approach to Address Demographic Change and Some Policy Implications for the Next (2028–2034) Multiannual Financial Framework
169-193.
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Demographic trends in developed countries are marked by low birth rates and rising life expectancy in the last decades, as a result their population is shrinking and aging. Demographic change has always existed throughout history, but the extent of these shifts is unprecedented and will require major socioeconomic adjustments in many countries. The European Union (EU) is unfortunately one of those hit hardest by demographic change: Europe is the only continent that is expected to have a population decline until 2070, and even more alarmingly, the EU’s working-age population (20–64 years) is projected to decrease by around 20% during the same period, while the share of older age groups (65 years or older) in its total population will be the second highest globally among large economies. This will not only have a major impact on the EU’s position in the world, as population and economic size play an important role in the world’s power structures, but it will also lead to a number of significant negative consequences that have the potential to undermine its economic and social model. In addition, demographic challenges will affect EU Member States to a different degree, as there are substantial differences between and within countries, which, if not addressed adequately, will aggravate existing economic, social and territorial disparities and create political divisions. Therefore, while most of the matters associated with demographic change still remain within the exclusive competence of Member States, the EU is increasingly active in addressing these challenges ranging from areas such as pension and employment policies or issues related to health and long-term care to education policies. The aim of this article is first to give an insight into the most recent demographic trends in the EU, as well as their main economic and social consequences in order to provide a basis for better understanding the magnitude of the challenge.
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Strategic Elements of the Hungarian Family Support System after 2010: Achievements and Challenges
195-219.
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The study undertakes to outline the legal background of the family-friendly government policy built after 2010, its achievements and challenges. The authors examine the elements of Hungarian family policy, their effectiveness between 2010 and 2022 and the outcomes of family supports from the point of demography, welfare and well-being of Hungarians. The authors present the principles, legislative background, family policy indicators and results of this system. At the end of the study, they make an attempt to identify the new challenges and solution options in Hungarian family policy after 2022.
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