Too Little Too Late?

An Overview of the European Union’s Approach to Address Demographic Change and Some Policy Implications for the Next (2028–2034) Multiannual Financial Framework

Absztrakt

Demographic trends in developed countries are marked by low birth rates and rising life expectancy in the last decades, as a result their population is shrinking and aging. Demographic change has always existed throughout history, but the extent of these shifts is unprecedented and will require major socioeconomic adjustments in many countries. The European Union (EU) is unfortunately one of those hit hardest by demographic change: Europe is the only continent that is expected to have a population decline until 2070, and even more alarmingly, the EU’s working-age population (20–64 years) is projected to decrease by around 20% during the same period, while the share of older age groups (65 years or older) in its total population will be the second highest globally among large economies. This will not only have a major impact on the EU’s position in the world, as population and economic size play an important role in the world’s power structures, but it will also lead to a number of significant negative consequences that have the potential to undermine its economic and social model. In addition, demographic challenges will affect EU Member States to a different degree, as there are substantial differences between and within countries, which, if not addressed adequately, will aggravate existing economic, social and territorial disparities and create political divisions. Therefore, while most of the matters associated with demographic change still remain within the exclusive competence of Member States, the EU is increasingly active in addressing these challenges ranging from areas such as pension and employment policies or issues related to health and long-term care to education policies. The aim of this article is first to give an insight into the most recent demographic trends in the EU, as well as their main economic and social consequences in order to provide a basis for better understanding the magnitude of the challenge.