End of the Syrian Civil War? The Economic and Political Opportunities of the Reconstruction

Abstract

The recent offensive by the Assad regime against the rebel-held territories in Idlib could be the last chapter of the military phase in the Syrian civil war. In the forthcoming period, political solution and economic reconstruction would be given increased attention. Among the actors involved in the Syrian conflict, the states with larger geopolitical influence (Russia and Iran) do not have enough economic assets to cover the bill of the reconstruction. On the other hand, the states with a lesser geopolitical weight (United States, European Union and the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council) could block the reconstruction process in Syria. The paper is aimed at analysing the recent political and economic development as well as exploring the geopolitical and geoeconomic factors of the Syrian conflict.

The Assad regime, building on a coalition of political figures, new businessmen and local militias, has developed a functioning war economy and political model, the support of which is not in the interest of the Western states or some regional actors. However, certain states formerly hostile with the Assad regime, have recently developed pragmatic relations with Damascus, as, for example, the United Arab Emirates, which recently reopened its diplomatic mission in Syria. In the coming years, the geopolitical and geoeconomic rivalry could prevent any kind of solution of the Syrian civil war.