The Somali Security Situaton in 2024

Abstract

The political and security situation in Somalia and the Horn of Africa have undergone major changes in recent years, during which the country has turned from a failed to a fragile state. This analysis examines where this transformation is in 2024. First, it scrutinizes the political events of recent years, then the state of the fight against the al-Shabāb jihadist insurgency, with particular regard to the results and failures of the offensive against the extremist since 2022. After that, the impact of external actors on Somalia is presented, paying attention to the Ethiopia-Somaliland agreement of January 1, 2024. The main conclusions of the study are that, despite the undoubted results, the power struggle that can be observed among the Somali elite, sometimes leading to armed conflict, and the external intervention that takes advantage of it, seriously hinder the country’s further development.