Prospects for Armed Reunification of the People’s Republic of China and Taiwan in the Light of The Russo-Ukrainian War

Abstract

The paper examines the likelihood and possible scenarios of a military conflict between the People’s Republic of China and Taiwan, drawing parallels with the experience of the Russo-Ukrainian War. The study concludes that Taiwan would not be able to deter the offensive of the People’s Liberation Army by relying solely on its own defence forces. However, Taiwan’s defensive military geography coupled with the military support provided by the United States and its East Asian allies are sufficient to deter Beijing from launching an attack or to repel landing operations on Taiwan. There is a risk that Beijing concludes from the Ukrainian conflict that the United States would not be willing to intervene militarily on behalf of Taiwan against a nuclear power. While the prospects of Chinese reunification by military means remain uncertain, it is vital for the international community, embedded in a globalised world economy, that the parties seek to avoid escalation and a global crisis through diplomacy and peaceful dialogue.