Vacuum and Uncertainty:

Restructuring of the Security Systems of the Middle East

Abstract

The recent events have changed the security structures of the Middle East dramatically. The shifts in the balances of power and the increased instability have started to restructure the security systems of the region. The retreat of the former hegemon (the beyond doubt security guarantor) have left behind a power vacuum at regional level. The intra-state power voids, emerged from the collapsed statehoods and weakened centres of power, reinforced the non-state and sub-state actors. The fear of a regime change, the security dilemma and the uncertainty about the adversaries created an arms race, a regional supremacy trap and the need to obtain new and more allies. Power projection has become part of the competition for survival, thus previously unimaginable cooperations started to develop. Nevertheless, these coalitions seem to be volatile, changing and interest-based, permanent or consistent alliances have not taken shape yet. What seems to be in making is not a solid security architecture, but rather a new security subcomplex, dominated by a Saudi Arabia – Iran competition for influence (with deepening Gulf Arab – Israeli relationships).