Economic Consequences of the Russian-Ukrainian War in 2022
Copyright (c) 2022 Csáki György
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
Abstract
The 2020s began with a global recession caused by Covid–19, and the world economy had not even recovered from either the epidemic or the following recession when the Russian–Ukrainian war broke out at the end of February 2022, with obvious broad short-, medium- and long-term consequences for the global economy. Our study attempts to sum up the expected structural changes in the global market for oil and gas as well as for agricultural products, mainly cereals and oilseeds. On this basis, we outline the likely effects of war on the balance of power in the global economy.
Keywords:
References
Alper, Alexandra: Exclusive: Russia’s Attack on Ukraine Halts Half of World’s Neon Output for Chips. [online], Reuters, 2022. 03. 11. Forrás: https://reuters.com [2022. 03. 15.]
BBC: How Many Ukrainian Refugees Are There and Where Have They Gone? [online], BBC, 2022. 04. 07. Forrás: https://bbc.com [2022. 04. 15.]
Broom, Douglas: Russia Is The World’s Largest Exporter Of Petroleum Products - But What Exactly Are They? [online], World Economic Forum, 2022. 04. 01. Forrás: https://weforum.org [2022. 04. 15.]
Colussi, Joana – Gary Schnitkey: War in Ukraine and its Effect on Fertilizer Exports to Brazil and the U.S. [online], 2022. 03. 17. Forrás: https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu [2022. 04. 06.]
European Commission: EU Sanctions against Russia Following the Invasion of Ukraine. [online], 2022a. Forrás: https://ec.europa.eu [2022. 04. 19.]
European Commission: Statement by President von der Leyen on the Fourth Package of Restrictive Measures against Russia. [online], 2022b. 03. 11. Forrás: https://ec.europa.eu [2022. 04. 15.]
FAO: The Importance of Ukraine and the Russian Federation for Global Agricultural Markets and the Risks Associated with the Current Conflict. [online], 2022a. 03. 25. Forrás: https://fao.org [2022. 04. 25.]
FAO: World Food Situation. [online], 2022b. 02. Forrás: https://fao.org [2022. 03. 10.]
Fernández, Lucía: Leading Fertilizer Exporting Countries Worldwide in 2020, Based on Value. [online], 2021. 11. 24. Forrás: https://statista.com [2022. 04. 08.]
IMF: World Economic Outlook: Recovery During a Pandemic Health Concerns, Supply Disruptions, and Price Pressures. [online], 2021. 10. Forrás: https://imf.org [2022. 03. 03.]
IMF: IMF Executive Board Approves US$ 1.4 Billion in Emergency Financing Support to Ukraine. [online], 2022a. 03. 09. Forrás: https://imf.org [2022. 03. 15.]
IMF: Transcript of IMF Media Roundtable on Ukraine. [online], 2022b. 03. 10. Forrás: https://imf.org [2022. 03. 11.]
IMF: World Economic Outlook. War Sets Back the Global Recovery. [online], 2022c. 04. Forrás: https://imf.org [2022.
19.]
Keynes, John Maynard: A békeszerződés gazdasági következményei. Budapest, Európa Kiadó, 1991.
Losoncz Miklós: Szankciók és energia. Élet és Irodalom, 66. (2022), 15.
OECD: Consumer Prices, OECD. [online], 2022a. 04. 05. Forrás: https://oecd.org [2022. 04. 15.]
OECD: Economic Outlook. Interim Report. Economic and Social Impacts and Policy Implications of the War in Ukraine. [online], 2022b. 03. Forrás: oecd-ilibrary.org [2022. 04. 15.]
Shear, Michael D.: Biden Bans Oil Imports From Russia, Calling It a ‘Blow to Putin’s War Machine’. [online], The New York Times, 2022. 03. 08. Forrás: https://nytimes.com [2022. 04. 15.]
Simai Mihály: A „HÚSZAS ÉVEK” A geopolitika és a világjárvány a globalizáció új szakaszában – visszapillantás és előretekintés. Magyar Tudomány, 183. (2022), 1. 3–22. Online: https://doi.org/10.1556/2065.183.2022.1.1
Sönnichsen, N.: Leading Gas Exporting Countries in 2020, by Export Type. [online], 2021. 07. 29. Forrás: https://statista.com [2022. 04. 17.]
Statista: Soybean Exports from Brazil from 2006 to 2020. [online], 2022. 01. 14. Forrás: statista.com [2022. 04. 16.]
Tálas Péter: Az Ukrajna elleni háború és az új globális rend. [online], Magyar Narancs, 2022. 04. 12. Forrás: https://magyarnarancs.hu [2022. 04. 15.]
Twin, Alexandra: The World’s 10 Biggest Oil Exporters. [online], 2022. 04. 15. Forrás: https://investopedia.com [2022. 04. 17.]
WIIW: Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine: Assessment of the Humanitarian, Economic and Financial Impact in the Short and Medium Term. [online], Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche, Policy Notes and Reports 59. 2022. 04. Forrás: https://wiiw.ac.at [2022. 04. 22.]
WITS: Iron or Steel; Expanded Metal Imports by Country in 2019. [online], 2019. Forrás: https://wits.worldbank.org
03. 10.]
Workman, Daniel: Coal Exports by Country. [online], 2022. 04. Forrás: https://worldstopexports.com [2022. 04. 17.]
Yergin, Daniel: Russia Losing Its Status as an “Energy Superpower”. [online], The Economist, 2022. 03. 19. Forrás: ehttps://conomist.com [2022. 04. 15.]