New Energy Politics in Southeastern Europe:

The European Union vis-à-vis the United States and Russia?

Abstract

Southeastern European (SEE) countries are typically keen to maintain the status quo in their energy systems. These are generally characterised by underinvestment, a high share of coal in the energy mix, and ambitions to maintain low utility prices. Their energy mixes have historically been heavily shaped by external factors, which currently are mainly pressures to decarbonise energy consumption. This article assesses how the EU’s decarbonisation-driven withdrawal from supporting fossil fuels and, in particular, natural gas projects deliberately shaped local fuel choices and how the EU has unintentionally become a geopolitical actor. We find that the EU’s goals go against Russian and U.S. interests, the latter two of which promote natural gas penetration and their own exports of the fuel to SEE. Instead of a dualpoled (EU/U.S.–Russia) one-dimensional (geopolitical) setup, the new pattern of the SEE natural gas scene includes three poles (EU–U.S.–Russia) and two dimensions (geopolitics and climate policy). Our three case studies present a successful coal exit towards natural gas and renewables (Greece), a country with an unclear energy
transition pathway due to questionable nuclear and natural gas plans (Bulgaria), as well as a non-EU country under limited policy pressure with shrinking lignite reserves and an ability to launch its shift to natural gas (North Macedonia).