"Deniable" wars?

Assessing Risks and Opportunities through Examining Current Case Studies from the Middle East

Abstract

The study introduces the concept of “deniable” war, which is applied for military interventions where a state intervening externally in an armed conflict does not recognise its direct involvement, and it uses “deniable” means (proxies, unmanned aerial vehicles, special forces, air force) to make the denial of the operation more plausible. The analysis points out that the benefits stemming from deniability do not necessarily require the intervention to be plausibly deniable. In support of its claims, the article examines five current case studies from the Middle East, and then it draws generalisable conclusions about the benefits and dangers of “deniable” wars, with particular regard to the aspects of cost-effectiveness and escalation dynamics.