Development of the Balance of Power in Libya and Prospects of Actively Interested Foreign Actors

Abstract

Underlying tension within layers of society that can be traced back to decades and which came onto the surface providing the essential element for the dynamic of conflict has led to an up-to-date unresolved environment of civil war in Libya, which after the initial years was accompanied by a wide scale of external contribution. The magnitude and nature of these may be exceedingly different. Conflicts carrying proxy attributes in current times are not only well-spread but convey multiple comparative advantages enabling them to influence the most critical conflicts of the MENA region directly and measurably. Numerous studies have been drawn on foreign actors’ ability to utilise their financial, political, diplomatic, military or intelligence arsenals in order to facilitate their hidden agendas without ever harming their own reputation in a significant manner. Moreover, less and less experts question today the connection between the presence of such strategies and the endurance of conflicts themselves. Precisely, opposing domestic actors’ access to external resources significantly reduced their will to compromise, while they have also refuted classic comprehensions on the relationship among masters and pawns. For years, Libya has been such a stage where countless debatable external contributions only further complicated the by then strained-enough societal oppositions. The fact that not every external actor utilises proxy tools does not alter the accuracy on that either. Still, last year’s accommodated events meaningfully altered the status quo, thus necessitating external participation in the Libyan civil war. This study examines six external actors that have actively participated in recent developments. However, its main goal is to analyse the preceding year’s events and to draw due conclusions. The purpose behind is to assess the outcome of the critical months ahead.