Russia and the Crisis in Venezuela

Abstract

The economic and political crisis in Venezuela have become a key risk factor for Russia. On 23 January 2019 Juan Guaidó, President of the National Assembly has declared himself interim resident and the United States unilaterally recognized this. According to the dominant Russian narrative of the events, the United States tries to unilaterally and forcefully remove the legitimately elected leader of a sovereign country. Hence, it is very likely that Russia will condemn the U.S. on all possible for it, and will try to slow down, or prevent Maduro’s loss of power. Nevertheless, Russia apparently started to play on the possibility of a regime change in Venezuela. In the short run, Moscow strives for managing the transition process, while hoping that at least parts of its earlier influence can be preserved. In the long run, one may expect that Russia will use the unilateral intervention of the West in Venezuela as a reference point, in order to legitimise its own steps that violated the international order or will do so in the future. From this perspective, the importance of the changes in Venezuela way exceeds Latin America, and points towards the further weakening of the institutional guarantees, on which the international system has been based.