Captives in a Trap

Iraq 2016

Abstract

Based on an overview of the political, economic, societal and military spheres, the authors offer a comprehensive analysis of the internal security situation in Iraq, identifying the underlying reasons for instability. An introduction to the past two years of the Abadi government is given, highlighting those structural societal and economic problems that yield in a deepening political crisis in the country, and the current state of affairs within the Iraqi Security Forces is discussed at a new phase of military operations, the siege of Mosul. The authors argue that the weakening of the “Islamic State” will not solve the internal problems of Iraq, moreover, there is a chance that after the “common enemy” will be defeated, societal conflicts will surface with renewed potential that could trigger an escalating armed struggle along ethnic and sectarian fault lines.