Political and Military Operational Background of the January 2017 Escalation in Eastern Ukraine

Abstract

The study examines the newest wave of escalation in Eastern Ukraine that began at the end of January, 2017 from political and military operational perspectives. In late 2016 – first time since the Minsk II agreement was signed – an offensive was launched in the Donbas, Ukraine. The operation was aimed to provoke a counter-attack from Moscow, and thus make it harder for Russia to realize the “grand bargain” with the new U.S. administration, which seemed to be a realistic option in the few months that followed the election of Donald Trump. The main lesson to learn is that Kyiv is not a passive subject of the great powers’ game over the Donbas, but an active player that is able and willing to shape the events, also by military power.