Ripeness Conditions for the Occurrence of Hybrid Warfare

Abstract

This article sets out to build up a theory of hybrid war in the sense of identifying the ripeness conditions that set apart the really plausible cases from the broader set of possible cases. The aim is thus to develop an understanding of the selection mechanisms by which certain dyads of countries, out of all conceivable dyads, may be especially likely to see the occurrence of hybrid war (either used unilaterally or mutually by both members of a dyad). The contextual variables that are expected to interact in this sense, and are therefore studied in this article, include: the type of political system, systemic and operational peculiarities of the media, the nature of economic relations between user and target (and potentially other third parties), cultural proximity, prior political instability in the area of the target, and prior and existing discourse on hybrid war itself.