Global Trends and Risks in the 21st Century – The First Decade

Abstract

From the beginning of the 21st century increasing number of studies analysed the short- and long-term processes and the evolving risks of the global world. One of the outstanding examples is the paper published every four–five years by the National Intelligence Council, a Washington based organization under the title of “Global Trends”. The other prestigious paper is the “Global Risks Report” by the World Economic Forum published every year before the Summit in Davos. Consultations with government officials, business people, universities and research institutions of several countries preceeded the publication of both series of studies. The papers intended to offer material for the debates of experts and the interested public. Authors of the documents used previous analyses as a basis and built new ones upon them with the intention to sensitize the reader to the changes regarding the major processes and the inherent risks. The papers give an overview about the problems of the global international system and offer useful conclusions to government institutions, business enterprises, research institutions and private citizens. This study summarises the ideas contained in the documents published during the two previous decades in two parts and puts them in the context of the theory of international relations. The first part concentrates on global trends, the second part beside global trends, discusses global risks in connection with the trends.