Paradigm Shift or Policy Deepening?

Interpreting the ProtectEU Agenda

Abstract

Introduction: In their 2026 study published in Magyar Rendészet, Szabó and Rémai interpreted the two-decade evolution of the European Union’s counter-terrorism policy as three distinct security paradigms. On 26 February 2026, the European Commission published the document ProtectEU: Agenda to Prevent and Counter Terrorism (European Commission 2026), which had been anticipated in the earlier study and provides an empirical opportunity to reassess both the promises of the previous strategic cycle and the question of strategic continuity.

Objectives: The study seeks to answer four main questions. How did the threat landscape evolve in 2024 compared to previous years? To what extent did the 2026 Agenda fulfil the commitments outlined in the 2024/2025 strategic framework, and which areas remained unaddressed? What level of legal binding force do the measures contained in the Agenda possess? Which structural issues remain unresolved?

Methodology: The research is based on qualitative document analysis and quantitative data analysis. The document analysis relies on a systematic comparison between COM(2026) 101 final and the 2024/2025 family of strategic documents. The quantitative section draws on data from Europol’s TE-SAT 2025 Report and the Global Terrorism Database (GTD).

Results: The 2026 Agenda represents a policy deepening of the third paradigm identified in the previous study and established in the strategic documents published in 2024/2025. The ProtectEU internal security strategy translates previously articulated ambitions into concrete legislative proposals, funding programmes, and institutional mechanisms. Three new thematic priorities can be identified: the structural management of minors’ radicalisation, the integration of artificial intelligence regulation into counter-terrorism policy, and the establishment of an EU-wide financial data access framework. At the same time, the scope of legally binding measures remains limited, while the preservation of member state sovereignty leaves the most critical implementation areas of EU counter-terrorism policy largely at the level of recommendations.

Conclusion: The 2026 Agenda does not constitute a paradigm shift. By 2026, the EU’s policy on preventing terrorism and violent extremism had entered a foundational and progressively deepening policy phase, the effectiveness of which will largely depend on the quality of implementation at the member state level.