Restart of East Central Europe: With or Without Euro?

Abstract

The study examines which was the more efficient way to restart economic growth in the Visegrad economies after the crises of 2009 and 2010, whether with euro or without euro. The conclusions were drawn by comparing the macroeconomic data series of the four Visegrad countries between 2009 and 2017. The initial hypothesis of the study is that the reservation of a national currency did facilitate the restart process, and thus the success of long-term monetary integration and convergence is more ensured if real convergence is ahead of single currency introduction, instead of expecting the reverse realization in the V4 countries. The results confirm the hypothesis in case of relative GDP, labour market and external balance. The context of the analysis is provided by the synthesis of the domestic dispute on euro introduction since the early 2000s.