Only the Paranoid Survive

Kecsmár Krisztián
5–6.
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PDF (English)
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We suppose that the dramatic decline in the European output is more than a cyclical diversion from the potential output. We performed a medium term quantitative analysis combining data based on the production function and growth accounting approach. Our results show that the erosion of the European growth potential has been a longer latent process. It began well before the outbreak of the latest economic crisis. Simulations suggest that the recovery in the rate of potential growth can only be partial in the medium term and further erosion of the European growth potential can be expected in the longer term.

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We suppose that the dramatic decline in the European output is more than a cyclical diversion from the potential output. We performed a medium term quantitative analysis combining data based on the production function and growth accounting approach. Our results show that the erosion of the European growth potential has been a longer latent process. It began well before the outbreak of the latest economic crisis. Simulations suggest that the recovery in the rate of potential growth can only be partial in the medium term and further erosion of the European growth potential can be expected in the longer term.

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Andrea Elekes, Associate Professor, National University of Public Service, Institute of International Economics and Economics. 

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Péter Halmai, Corr. Member of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences; Director, National University of Public Service, Institute of International Economics and Economics. 

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PDF (English)
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The paper transcends prevailing literature on the crisis of European integration by demonstrating that disorientegration (losing orientation and weakening integration) is not a recent fortuitous event but a systemic pattern. It shows how the centrifugal force towards weakening European integration has developed by asking what are the general non-EU specific vectors of such a gradient. We argue that disorientegration is an echo effect of a complex amalgam of intertwined mechanisms secularly shaping the European integration process. Our paper also outlines the critical mass of conceptual prerequisites of reversing the European disorientegration.

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The paper transcends prevailing literature on the crisis of European integration by demonstrating that disorientegration (losing orientation and weakening integration) is not a recent fortuitous event but a systemic pattern. It shows how the centrifugal force towards weakening European integration has developed by asking what are the general non-EU specific vectors of such a gradient. We argue that disorientegration is an echo effect of a complex amalgam of intertwined mechanisms secularly shaping the European integration process. Our paper also outlines the critical mass of conceptual prerequisites of reversing the European disorientegration.

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Olivér Kovács, Research Fellow, ICEG European Center; Senior Research Fellow, National University of Public Service; Member of the Economics and Law Section of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Committee on World Economics and Development Studies. 

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Olivér Kovács, Research Fellow, ICEG European Center; Senior Research Fellow, National University of Public Service; Member of the Economics and Law Section of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Committee on World Economics and Development Studies. 

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PDF (English)
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The overall aim of the paper is to provide a comprehensive analysis of welfare state policies and expenditures of the East Central European (ECE) countries. The article collects the historical-institutional features of East Central European welfare states after transition and analyses the composition of welfare state spending. Since the outbreak of the financial crisis enforced welfare state retrenchment in the ECE region as well, recent developments play a key role in understanding the major features. The development of welfare services shows that the East Central European countries are at the very beginning of building a modern and efficient market-driven welfare state with several challenges ahead of them.

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The overall aim of the paper is to provide a comprehensive analysis of welfare state policies and expenditures of the East Central European (ECE) countries. The article collects the historical-institutional features of East Central European welfare states after transition and analyses the composition of welfare state spending. Since the outbreak of the financial crisis enforced welfare state retrenchment in the ECE region as well, recent developments play a key role in understanding the major features. The development of welfare services shows that the East Central European countries are at the very beginning of building a modern and efficient market-driven welfare state with several challenges ahead of them.

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Ágnes Orosz, Assistant Professor, National University of Public Service; Research Fellow, Institute of World Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences (MTA KRTK VGI). 

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PDF (English)
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Applying the insights of role theory, this paper investigates Germany’s foreign policy since 1990 towards the Central and Eastern European region in general, and Hungary in particular. Applying Germany’s “civilian power” role concept as a yardstick, we explore whether Germany lived up to the expectations in the area of economic assistance, minority rights and the Eastern enlargement of the EU. In the next step, we review how Germany’s civilian power approach has changed since the CEE countries became members of the EU in 2004/2007. Overall, we find that Bonn very much lived up to its role concept before 2004/2007. What changed since then is that Germany’s role concept was multilateralized: in effect, the EU and Germany share a similar foreign policy playbook, as many have characterized the EU itself as a civilian power. At its optimum, this gives Berlin a significant leverage over the CEE countries: the common weight of the EU apparatus and Germany is considerable.

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Applying the insights of role theory, this paper investigates Germany’s foreign policy since 1990 towards the Central and Eastern European region in general, and Hungary in particular. Applying Germany’s “civilian power” role concept as a yardstick, we explore whether Germany lived up to the expectations in the area of economic assistance, minority rights and the Eastern enlargement of the EU. In the next step, we review how Germany’s civilian power approach has changed since the CEE countries became members of the EU in 2004/2007. Overall, we find that Bonn very much lived up to its role concept before 2004/2007. What changed since then is that Germany’s role concept was multilateralized: in effect, the EU and Germany share a similar foreign policy playbook, as many have characterized the EU itself as a civilian power. At its optimum, this gives Berlin a significant leverage over the CEE countries: the common weight of the EU apparatus and Germany is considerable.

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András Hettyey, Assistant Professor, National University of Public Service. 

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The so-called “Dieselgate” was one of the major scandals of recent years, in which it has been revealed that several car manufacturers (and primarily the Volkswagen Group) manipulated with computers certain diesel-engine models. As a result, the software of the cars could detect when the models concerned were being tested and adjust the car’s emissions to minimum requirements under laboratory circumstances. The starting point of the scandal was the notice of the US Environmental Protection Agency issued in September 2015, which obviously leads us to the dilemma, whether the EU would also need such supranational level watchdog instead of the current system of mainly national level-enforcement and supervision. The European Parliament’s Inquiry Report and some MEP revealed several shortcomings and the need for an EU Road Transport Agency, though this option has not been followed by the Commission in related amendments. The article focuses on the different ways of EU “agencification” with emphasis on the relevant factors such as major crisis events or transboundary effects (standardisation requirements) which clearly resulted in creating EU agencies. This has been the relevant factors in establishing the three (other) EU transport agencies just like in case of the EU’s environmental agency. Therefore, it is the question of the future, whether the reluctance mentioned, combined with the partly reformed enforcement framework with some increased powers given to the Commission (also to the newly created Forum inside the Commission), and the new requirements towards national authorities could adequately address the concerns revealed by the Dieselgate.

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The so-called “Dieselgate” was one of the major scandals of recent years, in which it has been revealed that several car manufacturers (and primarily the Volkswagen Group) manipulated with computers certain diesel-engine models. As a result, the software of the cars could detect when the models concerned were being tested and adjust the car’s emissions to minimum requirements under laboratory circumstances. The starting point of the scandal was the notice of the US Environmental Protection Agency issued in September 2015, which obviously leads us to the dilemma, whether the EU would also need such supranational level watchdog instead of the current system of mainly national level-enforcement and supervision. The European Parliament’s Inquiry Report and some MEP revealed several shortcomings and the need for an EU Road Transport Agency, though this option has not been followed by the Commission in related amendments. The article focuses on the different ways of EU “agencification” with emphasis on the relevant factors such as major crisis events or transboundary effects (standardisation requirements) which clearly resulted in creating EU agencies. This has been the relevant factors in establishing the three (other) EU transport agencies just like in case of the EU’s environmental agency. Therefore, it is the question of the future, whether the reluctance mentioned, combined with the partly reformed enforcement framework with some increased powers given to the Commission (also to the newly created Forum inside the Commission), and the new requirements towards national authorities could adequately address the concerns revealed by the Dieselgate.

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László Szegedi, Senior Lecturer, National University of Public Service, Faculty of International and European Studies, Department of European Public and Private Law. 

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Armand L.C. de Mestral, C.M., Emeritus Professor, Jean Monnet Professor, Faculty of Law, McGill University.  

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 Györgyi Nyikos, Vice-Rector for International Affairs, National University of Public Service.  

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Olivér Kovács, Research Fellow, ICEG European Center; Senior Research Fellow, National University of Public Service; Member of the Economics and Law Section of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Committee on World Economics and Development Studies. 

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