The Internationalisation of the Conflict in Libya
Copyright (c) 2022 MOLNÁR Anna, MOLNÁR Patrícia Éva, MÁRTONFFY Balázs, TAKÁCS Lili, VECSEY Mariann
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
The copyright to this article is transferred to the University of Public Service Budapest, Hungary (for U.S. government employees: to the extent transferable) effective if and when the article is accepted for publication. The copyright transfer covers the exclusive right to reproduce and distribute the article, including reprints, translations, photographic reproductions, microform, electronic form (offline, online) or any other reproductions of similar nature.
The author warrants that this contribution is original and that he/she has full power to make this grant. The author signs for and accepts responsibility for releasing this material on behalf of any and all co-authors.
An author may make an article published by University of Public Service available on a personal home page provided the source of the published article is cited and University of Public Service is mentioned as copyright holder
Abstract
Libya has been characterised by instability since the Arab Spring. In 2011, Western powers decided to intervene. In spite of stated goals, this violent dispute has been ongoing ever since. In this paper, we seek to answer the following research question: why do certain internationalised violent disputes, specifically new civil wars, remain violent even when the actors involved seek a cessation of hostilities? We utilise a single-outcome case study6 research design and we compare and contrast the involvement of great powers, European leading powers and regional powers. We highlight the use of soft and/or hard foreign policy tools. We distinguish between policy goals and policy tools. We find that the essential interests and policy goals of the analysed powers will unlikely change, but change in the use of their foreign policy tools will likely be a shift towards harder tools, which will exacerbate further the Libyan stabilisation process. Even a coincidence of the stated policy goals of external actors, namely a cessation of hostilities is insufficient to end a new civil war. As long as the policy tools themselves remain un-coordinated between the actors, they counteract one another, and the conflict continues to remain violent.