AARMS – Academic and Applied Research in Military and Public Management Science

Assessing Offensive Cyber Capabilities

2023-05-02T10:19:50+02:00

The recent emergence of mercenary spyware like Pegasus or Russia’s ongoing conventional warfare in Ukraine, supplemented by a cyber offensive we never experienced before, made cybersecurity even more critical. Despite the considerable research in the field, it seems that academia and the private sector have not been able to keep up with the growing importance of security and privacy resulting from the significant increase in cyber threats to critical services, infrastructure and human rights. Research on cyber capabilities tends to focus on the general understanding of the field and pays less attention to the rapid spread of increasingly advanced offensive cyber capabilities. Correctly assessing the capabilities of others and recognising the steps necessary to develop their own capabilities are essential for any country in combating future cybersecurity challenges. However, since there is no consensus on describing even basic cyber capabilities, current research uses different interpretations and usually lacks offensive capabilities altogether. In this article, I discuss the problem of assessing, measuring and evaluating offensive cyber capabilities, starting from the different definitions of some related terms through the various cyber power indices, right down to the talent behind cybersecurity, and perhaps the most promising indicators for assessing offensive capabilities.

Quantitative Analysis of the Possible Sites of a New Danube Bridge to Bypass Budapest on Rail – Part 1

2023-05-07T11:35:00+02:00

Since 1920, almost all the traffic on rail crossing the Danube in Hungary, crosses it in Budapest via the Southern Railway Bridge which makes it heavily overloaded. This is a very disadvantageous situation not only for commercial shipping but also for military uses as there is certain heavy military equipment that can only be transported via rail.
In our two-part article, we examine the locations of new bridges that could be alternatives to bypass Budapest and thus to reduce the traffic load on the railway lines of the capital. In this first part of our paper, we present the effect of a new Danube bridge as an alternative to the V0 railway line. We examine the possible sites of the bridge with several different route alternatives connecting it to the existing railway lines by using traffic simulation.

Quantitative Analysis of the Possible Sites of a New Danube Bridge to Bypass Budapest on Rail – Part 2

2023-05-07T11:34:11+02:00

Since 1920, almost all the traffic on rail crossing the Danube in Hungary, crosses it in Budapest via the Southern Railway Bridge which makes it overloaded. This is a very disadvantageous situation not only for commercial shipping but also for military uses as there is certain heavy military equipment that can only be transported via rail.
In our two-part article, we examine the locations of new bridges that could be alternatives to bypass Budapest and thus to reduce the traffic load on the railway lines of the capital. In this second part, we examine the situation on the river Tisza by simulating the existence of several bridge alternatives, both newly built and developed existing ones. We also suggest a combined way of development to treat the capacity changes in the context of the whole network by building two new bridges, one on each river.

Boosting Effect of Startup Ecosystems through Next Generation Digital Technologies in Hungary

2023-04-28T12:07:45+02:00

In time of crisis, developing Next Generation Digital Technologies in the innovation network, with special attention to startup companies, can be a key to economic thrive. This paper reviews the current and emerging technological trends and how they are connected to the hype surrounding startup companies and their ecosystem, with particular attention to the role of the state. The analyses use Ramstad’s Expanded Triple Helix Model as a framework but with opening its workplace dimensions to subgroups.
In Hungary, digital or technology-led startups are relevant in their numerical and economic volume. Narrowing them further down to artificial intelligence-based companies, one can see that innovation-led cooperations are already state facilitated and could cover every aspect of the ecosystem model. Analysing its operation could lead to good practices for further usage in other technological fields. On the other hand, further qualitative research on their innovation partnership should be conducted to avoid any bias.

Combustion Gas Examination of a Battery Housing in Electrically Driven Heavy Goods Vehicle

2023-04-11T21:58:32+02:00

Nowadays, electrically propelled vehicles are becoming more and more popular. Due to the propulsion system, the risks derived from the operation have changed, compared to the conventionally driven vehicles. The investigated vehicle has the same, new risk factor originating from the behaviour of rechargeable energy storage system (RESS) during combustion and there is only a minority of available literature dealing with the investigation of the battery housing. According to our assumption the housing is a fire comburent material that hinders the work of first responders. In this research we conducted the laboratory examination of a prismatic LiFePO4 battery cell and battery pack cover used in electrically driven vehicles during burning. Combustion gases were collected and were evaluated with the help of gas chromatography. Our results show that plastic housing and cell covers are not recommended in automotive industrial use, because of their comburent characteristics, also the combustion gases are severely harmful. This paper includes the method of sampling, the experiment itself and the results.

Digitalisation in the Western Balkans

2023-04-13T09:48:29+02:00

Digitalisation has been a top priority in the Western Balkans for the past decade. The European Union, recognising it as a driver of economic growth, is encouraging the countries of the region to invest in digital development from 2017. The necessary legislation has been adopted, the institutions responsible for this have been set up and developments have been launched to provide citizens with a wide range of services. At different times, all the countries in the region have set up their own e-public administration portals, which they are working to improve with their own resources and with the support of the European Union. A strong emphasis is being placed on developing the digital skills of the younger generation, as this kind of relationship between the state and its citizens will become the new norm for the generations to come. However, not only the citizens, but also economic operators will benefit from the transition, with reduced costs and faster turnaround times, which could also be an advantage for economic operators.

The Role of the Indonesian National Armed Forces (TNI) in Post-Conflict Peacebuilding: A Civil–Military Cooperation (CIMIC) Perspective

2023-07-10T15:18:43+02:00

This paper scrutinises the assimilation of the Indonesian National Armed Forces (Tentara Nasional Indonesia – TNI) into civilian structures to shape a harmonised civil–military cooperation (CIMIC) in post-conflict peacebuilding initiatives. Acting as a crucial state apparatus, the TNI confronts a spectrum of threats, upholds national integrity, and follows Law No. 34/2004 by promoting soft power in non-combative military operations. Notwithstanding concerns raised by peace activists regarding potential human rights breaches during armed interventions, peacebuilding heavily depends on trust-building, which is a key catalyst for stakeholder cooperation. In contradiction to activists’ apprehensions, 2022 surveys reveal an impressive public trust level of around 93% towards the TNI. This robust public confidence sets a promising stage for the active engagement of the TNI in peacebuilding. To ensure effective participation, the TNI must demonstrate human rights commitment and adaptability to civilian protocols and guarantee non-repressive methodologies in peace missions. Leveraging its soft power, the TNI can cultivate productive alliances with civil institutions via joint ventures under civilian supremacy within a regulated CIMIC construct. The theory of change offers a unique perspective on the intertwined dynamics of civil–military collaboration, public trust and soft military power in peacebuilding, steering state policy outcomes. These are shaped by the government’s ability to reshape military duties devoid of military overreach. In conclusion, civilian control over the military materialises through shared accountability in peacebuilding endeavours, encapsulated within the CIMIC framework.

The Prevalence of External States’ Covert Interests over Overtly Emphasised International Conflict Resolution Agendas Throughout a Decade of Libyan Uncertainty

2023-06-01T09:17:47+02:00

This study offers a comparative perspective on four external states’ behavioural tendencies in contrast to their officially upheld ambitions witnessed throughout the past ten years in Libya. Sound promises on conflict resolution, mitigation and alleged alignment with R2P principles is of course nothing new in the international arena, nor is the fact that the parallel existence of selfish agendas constitute an “innovation”. Nevertheless, the case of failed reconciliation and stabilisation process of Libya despite seemingly massive international support offers a recent sphere for investigating the whole spectrum of underlying opposition among the external parties. What started out as a domestically rooted conflict, soon developed into an increasingly international one. After several attempts at the establishment of a truly unified government, interests have never got sufficiently close to each other. What this article sets out to expand on is a fundamentally balance of threats motivated geostrategic opposition, which was only seemingly centred around local key figures like Haftar, Sarraj or even influential tribal leaders. Numerous foreign stakeholders were acting against the very declarations and statements they themselves called their fellows to comply with via means of proxy actions and in hopes of capitalising on the advantages stemming from the status quo. This work discusses the means these states acted counter-productively against the Libyan conflict resolution.