Az Izrael–Hamász háború és az izraeli nemzetbiztonsági stratégia jövője
Copyright (c) 2024 Csepregi Zsolt
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
Absztrakt
A Hamász 2023. október 7-én végrehajtott terrortámadása megrengette az izraeli nemzetbiztonsági stratégia alappilléreit. A tanulmány bemutatja, hogy az izraeli katonai és nemzetbiztonsági stratégia mind a négy pillérje: a korai előrejelzés, az elrettentés, a döntő győzelem és a védelem is – még ha csak átmenetileg és korlátozott mértékben, de – súlyos kudarcot vallottak. Ezzel együtt is ugyanakkor amellett érvelek, hogy mindez nem jelenti egyértelműen, hogy Izrael hasonló kudarcot vallott volna egy, a létét fenyegető háború kitörésének esetében. Az Izrael–Hamász háború valójában izraeli képességek tekintetében egy közepes szintű biztonsági kihívásra adott vészhelyzeti katonai művelet, nem pedig a stratégia alapját képező létért vívott háború. A háború kitörése nyomán azonban jogosan azonosíthatunk és elemezhetünk számos hiányosságot Izrael nemzetbiztonsági készenlétével és hatékonyságával kapcsolatban, továbbá a tanulmány bemutatja a fő fejlesztési irányokat.
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