The Prevalence of External States’ Covert Interests over Overtly Emphasised International Conflict Resolution Agendas Throughout a Decade of Libyan Uncertainty

doi: 10.32565/aarms.2023.3.8

Abstract

This study offers a comparative perspective on four external states’ behavioural tendencies in contrast to their officially upheld ambitions witnessed throughout the past ten years in Libya. Sound promises on conflict resolution, mitigation and alleged alignment with R2P principles is of course nothing new in the international arena, nor is the fact that the parallel existence of selfish agendas constitute an “innovation”. Nevertheless, the case of failed reconciliation and stabilisation process of Libya despite seemingly massive international support offers a recent sphere for investigating the whole spectrum of underlying opposition among the external parties. What started out as a domestically rooted conflict, soon developed into an increasingly international one. After several attempts at the establishment of a truly unified government, interests have never got sufficiently close to each other. What this article sets out to expand on is a fundamentally balance of threats motivated geostrategic opposition, which was only seemingly centred around local key figures like Haftar, Sarraj or even influential tribal leaders. Numerous foreign stakeholders were acting against the very declarations and statements they themselves called their fellows to comply with via means of proxy actions and in hopes of capitalising on the advantages stemming from the status quo. This work discusses the means these states acted counter-productively against the Libyan conflict resolution.

Keywords:

Libya proxy war balance of threat Russia Turkey France Italy

How to Cite

Kása, B. (2023) “The Prevalence of External States’ Covert Interests over Overtly Emphasised International Conflict Resolution Agendas Throughout a Decade of Libyan Uncertainty”, AARMS – Academic and Applied Research in Military and Public Management Science. Budapest, 22(3), pp. 125–135. doi: 10.32565/aarms.2023.3.8.

References

Ahmed, Omar (2020): Turkey May Have Reclaimed the Leadership of Sunni Islam from Saudi Arabia. Middle East Monitor, 30 July 2020. Online: https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20200730-turkey-may-have-reclaimed-the-leadership-of-sunni-islam-from-saudiarabia/

Amiel, Sandrine (2019): French Fighter Jets Bomb Chadian Rebels in Support of Deby’s Regime. Euronews, 07 February 2019. Online: https://www.euronews.com/2019/02/07/frenchfighter-jets-bomb-chadian-rebels-in-support-of-deby-s-regime

Butler, Daren – Gumrukcu , Tuvan (2019): Turkey Signs Maritime Boundaries Deal with Libya Amid Exploration Row. Reuters, 28 November 2019. Online: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-libya/turkey-signs-maritime-boundaries-deal-with-libya-amid-exploration-rowidUSKBN1Y213I

Cammack, Perry – Dunne, Michele: Fueling Middle East Conflicts – or Dousing the Flames. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 23 October 2018. Online: https://carnegieendowment.org/2018/10/23/fueling-middle-east-conflicts-or-dousing-flamespub-77548

Chassany, Anne-Sylvaine – Saleh, Heba (2016): Three French Soldiers Killed in Helicopter Crash in Libya. Financial Times, 20 July 2016. Online: https://www.ft.com/content/eb86e8d8-4e6d-11e6-88c5-db83e98a590a

Coskun, Orhan – Gumrukcu , Tuvan (2020): Turkey Ready for Fast Reconstruction in Conflicttorn Libya, Official Says. Reuters, 19 June 2020. Online: https://www.reuters.com/article/turkeylibya-security-idUSL8N2DW37O

Dal, Emel Parlar (2018a): Assessing Turkey’s Changing Conflict Management Role after the Cold War: Actorness, Approaches and Tools. Third World Quarterly, 39(12), 2291–2314. Online: https://doi.org/10.1080/01436597.2018.1522956

Dal, Emel Parlar (2018b): Rising Powers in International Conflict Management: An Introduction. Third World Quarterly, 39(12), 2207–2221. Online: https://doi.org/10.1080/01436597.2018.1503048

Dixon, Robyn (2020): Russia’s Ally in Libya Is Battered by Defeats. But Moscow Has Wider Goals to Expand Its Influence. The Washington Post, 06 June 2020. Online: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/russia-libya-war-putin/2020/06/05/c3956bf4-a109-11ea-be06-af5514ee0385_story.html

Dominioni, Irene (2020): Italy Refinances Immigration Agreement with Libya Amid Protests. Forbes, 18 July 2020. Online: https://www.forbes.com/sites/irenedominioni/2020/07/18/italyrefinances-immigration-agreement-with-libya-amid-protests/#88ab1a53c49a

El-Gamaty, Guma (2018): Libya Conflict: Is France an Honest Broker? Middle East Eye, 29 May 2018. Online: https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/libya-conflict-france-honest-broker

El Wardany, Salma (2019): Total Gets Libya’s Approval to Acquire Marathon Oil’s Assets. World Oil, 11 December 2019. Online: https://www.worldoil.com/news/2019/12/11/total-getslibya-s-approval-to-acquire-marathon-oil-s-assets

Gall, Carlotta (2020): Turkey, Flexing Its Muscles, Will Send Troops to Libya. The New York Times, 02 January 2020. Online: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/02/world/europe/erdoganturkey-libya.html

Goodman, Peter S. (2019): Turkey’s Long, Painful Economic Crisis Grinds On. The New York Times, 08 July 2019. Online: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/08/business/turkey-economycrisis.html

Grand, Camille (2015): The French Experience: Sarkozy’s War? In Mue ller , Karl P. (ed.): Precision and Purpose. Airpower in the Libyan Civil War. Santa Monica: RAND Corporation. 183–204.

Harkai, István (2017): Líbia – a beavatkozás dilemmái egy bukott államban [Libya – The Dilemmas of Intervention in a Failed State]. In Marsai, Viktor – Vogel, Dávid (eds.): Közel Afrikához [Close to Africa]. Budapest: Dialóg Campus. 123–137.

Irish, John – Emmott, Robin (2020): France–Turkey Tensions Mount after NATO Naval Incident. Reuters, 07 July 2020. Online: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-nato-france-turkeyanalysis-idUSKBN2481K5

Jarry, Emmanuel (2018): France’s Sarkozy Told He Suspected of Taking Gaddafi Election Money. Reuters, 21 March 2018. Online: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-sarkozylibyaidUSKBN1GX0LR

Lefèvre, Raphaël (2014): Commentary on Current Events. The Journal of North African Studies, 19(2), 268–273. Online: https://doi.org/10.1080/13629387.2014.898377

Lu, Lingyu – Thies, Cameron G. (2013): War, Rivalry, and State Building in the Middle East. Political Research Quarterly, 66(2), 239–253. Online: https://doi.org/10.1177/1065912912448538; DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/1065912912448538

McDonald, Matt (2008): Securitization and the Construction of Security. European Journal of International Relations, 14(4), 563–587. Online: https://doi.org/10.1177/1354066108097553

Magdy, Samy (2020): US: Turkey-sent Syrian Fighters Generate Backlash in Libya. The Washington Post, 02 September 2020. Online: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/us-turkey-sent-syrian-fighters-generate-backlash-in-libya/2020/09/02/db9a148e-ed58-11ea-bd08-1b10132b458f_story.html

Momtaz, Rym (2020): Macron Criticizes Turkey but Raises Prospect of Dialogue. Politico, 10 September 2020. Online: https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-calls-out-turkeywhile-extending-dialogue-branch/

Naar, Ismaeel (2020): Turkish Intelligence Agents, Foreign Fighters Arrive in Libya: Sources. Al Arabiya, 06 January 2020. Online: https://english.alarabiya.net/News/northafrica/2020/01/06/Turkish-intelligence-agents-foreign-fighters-arrive-in-Libya-Sources

Peel, Michael – England, Andrew – Mallet, Victor – Pitel, Laura (2020): French Spat with Turkey over Libya Lays Bare European Divisions. Financial Times, 05 July 2020. Online: https://www.ft.com/content/3b85dd0e-1f2e-40b0-b44b-947b7f75a03e

Pitel, Laura – Sheppard , David (2020): Turkey Fuels Regional Power Game over Mediterranean Gas Reserves. Financial Times, 18 July 2020. Online: https://www.ft.com/content/69a222d4-b37c-4e7e-86dc-4f96b226416d

Pusztai, Wolfgang (2017): The Haftar–Russia Link and the Military Plan of the LNA. ISPI, 02 February 2017. Online: https://www.ispionline.it/it/pubblicazione/haftar-russia-link-andmilitary-plan-lna-16289

Ramani, Samuel (2020): Russia’s strategy in Libya. Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), 07 April 2020. Online: https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/russias-strategy-libya

Reynolds, James (2018): Marco Minniti: The Man Who Cut the Migrant Flow to Italy. BBC, 20 September 2018. Online: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45575763

Saleh, Heba – Pitel, Laura – Foy, Henry (2020): Putin and Erdogan Call for Ceasefire in Warravaged Libya. Financial Times, 08 January 2020. Online: https://www.ft.com/content/823220de-3238-11ea-a329-0bcf87a328f2

Sertin, Carla (2020): ENI and Libya NOC’s Joint Venture Is Losing $9.4 mn Per Day. Oil and Gas Middle East, 02 February 2020. Online: https://www.oilandgasmiddleeast.com/drillingproduction/35946-eni-and-libya-nocs-joint-venture-is-losing-94mn-per-day

Shevchenko, Vitaly (2014): Little Green Men or Russian Invaders? BBC, 11 March 2014. Online: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26532154

Sørli, E. Mirjam – Gleditsch, Nils P. – Strand, Håvard (2005): Why Is There so Much Conflict in the Middle East? The Journal of Conflict Resolution, 49(1), 141–165. Online: https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002704270824

Taylor , Paul (2019): France’s Double Game in Libya. Politico, 17 April 2019. Online: https://www.politico.eu/article/frances-double-game-in-libya-nato-un-khalifa-haftar/

Turak, Natasha (2020): Russian Mercenaries, a CIA-linked General and Lots of Oil: Explaining Libya’s War. CNBC, 29 January 2020. Online: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/29/libyas-warexplained-khalifa-haftar-oil-cuts-uae-airstrikes-and-russian-mercenaries.html

Wezeman, Pieter D. – Fleura nt, Aude – Kuimo va, Alexandra – Tian, Nan – Wezeman, Siemon T. (2018): Trends in International Arms Transfers. SIPRI Fact Sheet, March 2018. Online: https://doi.org/10.55163/KFLQ6518

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.