Kockázat becslése numerikus módszerekkel a MATLAB alkalmazásával, folytonos eloszlások diszkretizálása

Abstract

According to data, terrorist activity tend to grow day by day. To make plans for defence and protection this is a real challenge for experts. The theory of risk and methods of risk analysis can be applied to assess the risk of terrorist activity and consequenses.
Mathematical methods, especially the probabilistic approach is widely applied for expressing the risk. However exact analitical calculation of probability is nearly impossible. In this paper numerical methods will be demonstrated in the context of terrorist’s threat. Logical trees are applied for description of possible events, the probabilities of these events are often discrete, but expert apply continuous distributions to discribe possible events. Discretization of continuous probability distribution will be demonstrated also. Application of MATLAB will be presented for numerical calculation of probability under discussion.