Kockázat becslése a valószínűség kiszámítása nélkül, a megbízhatósági index és alkalmazása

Abstract

According to data, terrorist activity tend to grow steadily, especially during the past 15 years. Terrorism became a global problem. Modern terrorism differs from the terrorism of the past. Nowadays terrorists have the opportunity to use innovative technologies. According to defence and protection this is an etirely new challenge for experts. The theory of risk and methods of risk analysis can be applied to assess the risk of terrorist activity and consequenses. Mathematical methods, especially the probabilistic approach is widely applied for expressing the risk. But the exact analitical calculation of probability is always impossible. In this paper the theory of reliability index will be demonstrated in the context of terrorist’s threat. It seems to be extremely suitable framework for this purpose, because risk can be assessed without direct calculation of probability.