Trends in Illegal Migration to Hungary Between 2008 and 2023

Abstract

In this article, I present one of the most important findings of my scientific research, which I have conducted as a police officer. The main questions are how the trends in illegal migration to Hungary started and developed between 2008 and 2023, and how they compare with the absolute value numbers of apprehensions in Austria, Slovakia, and Slovenia. During my research, I had to consider that the methodology of recording illegal border crossing was significantly changed in 2016 with the introduction of new classification categories. To obtain fruitful research results, I queried the statistical data for the examined period from domestic and foreign databases of illegal migration. I performed the analysis and assessment in sufficient detail, based on which I was able draw my conclusions. Because one person may attempt to enter illegally multiple times, at various sections of the border, the real number of illegal migrants does not equal to the number of persons subject to border police response. To correct the data, I created a new calculation method that shows the closer-to-reality number of illegal migrants. Illegal border crossing is named as “unlawful border crossing” in the “new” calculation system. I compared the more realistic data and demonstrated the differences in figures. The “solution formula” that I created is valid beyond the examined period too, in 2024, as the raw data are still not accurate.