The Transformation of the European Car Industry

Electrification and Its Challenges

  • Kossuth Ádám Ferenc
doi: 10.32559/et.2024.2.6

Abstract

The European automotive industry faces many 21st.century challenges, with sustainability and climate protection as key objectives. Among these, the European Parliament’s decision to mandate zero emission passenger cars and light commercial vehicles from 2035 marks a transformative shift. This cornerstone of the “Fit for 55” climate package carries broad economic, social and political implications, requiring significant adjustments across the automotive value chain and presenting major hurdles for stakeholders.
This manuscript explores the sector’s electrification efforts, focusing on the tension between sustainability goals and economic impacts. It highlights disparities in electric vehicle affordability and accessibility across Europe, which risk deepening socio-economic inequalities, and questions the environmental and equity outcomes of weight-based regulatory incentives favouring premium models.
Beyond assessing the feasibility of emissions targets, the study critically examines whether the EU’s focus on electric vehicles aligns with broader climate goals or creates new challenges. Addressing these issues aims to illuminate the immediate and long-term implications for the evolution of the automotive industry and Europe’s socio-economic landscape.

Keywords:

electric cars automotive industry sustainability CO₂ emissions NOx emissions premium models electrification

References

Directive (EU) 2014/94 (L 307)

Directive (EU) 2018/410

Regulation (EU) 2019/2144 (OJ L 325, 20.12.2019, 1).12.16

Regulation (EU) 2019/631 (OJ L 111, 25.4.2019)

Regulation (EU) 2014/333 (OJ L 103, 5.4.2014)

ACEA (2023): Fact Sheet #3 – Euro 7: Cheap or Expensive? Online: https://www.acea.auto/fact/fact-sheet-euro-7-cheap-or-expensive/

Aiq Quality Expert Group (2019): Non-Exhaust Emission from Road Traffic. Online: https://ukair.defra.gov.uk/assets/documents/reports/cat09/1907101151_20190709_Non_Exhaust_Emissions_typeset_Final.pdf

AMIEL, Sandrine (2019): ‘The Embers Remain’: One Year Since Its Inception, What Has the Gilets Jaunes Movement Achieved? Euronews, 15 November 2019. Online: https://www.euronews.com/2019/11/15/yellow-vests-a-year-on-is-the-future-bright-for-france-s-fluorescently-dressed-protesters

Arval Mobility Observatory (2019): Le véhicule électrique est-il si vertueux? Online: https://www.mobility-observatory.arval.fr/le-vehicule-electrique-est-il-si-vertueux

Automotive News Europe (2023): VW Cuts ID4, ID7 Output at German Plant. Automotive News Europe, 28 June 2023. Online: https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/vw-cuts-id4-and-id-output-emden-plant-due-flagging-sales

Automotive News Europe (2024a): EU Car Lobby Aims for 2-Year Delay of 2025 Emissions Targets. Bloomberg, 13 September 2024. Online: https://www.autonews.com/environmentemissions/acea-wants-2-more-years-automakers-reach-2025-co2-goal/

Automotive News Europe (2024b): VW Could Cut up to 30,000 Jobs in Germany, Report Says. Automotive News Europe, 19 September 2024. Online: https://www.autonews.com/automakers/vw-said-plan-30000-job-losses-germany/

Automotive News Europe (2025): VW Sees €1.5 Billion Cost in 2025 from EU Emissions Rules. Bloomberg, 23 January 2025. Online: https://www.autonews.com/volkswagen/ane-vw-eu-emissions-fines-evs/

BERJOZA, Dainis – JURGENA, Inara (2017): Influence of Batteries Weight on Electric Automobile Performance. 16th International Scientific Conference: Engineering for Rural Development. Jelgava, 24–26 May 2017, 1388–1394. Online: https://doi.org/10.22616/ERDev2017.16.N316

BUCSKY, Péter (2021): A nagy német autógyártók nyertek az uniós kibocsátási büntetésrendszerrel [The Big German Carmakers Have Won with the EU Emissions Penalty Scheme]. Online: https://g7.hu/vallalat/20210223/a-nagy-nemet-autogyartok-nyertek-az-unios-kibocsatasi-buntetesrendszerrel/

CHIAPPA, Claudia – BRZEZIŃSKI, Bartosz – ANDRÉS, Paula – LEVEN, Denis – WALKER, Ali (2024): Farmers’ Protest: Police Use Tear Gas and Water Cannons to Quell Violent Brussels Demo. Politico, 26 March 2024. Online: https://www.politico.eu/article/farmers-protests-new-brussels-demo-begins-with-bonfire-outside-eu-parliament/

Council of the European Union (2024): What Action Will the EU Take on Climate Change? Online: https://www.consilium.europa.eu/hu/policies/climate-change/#2050

DAI, Xin – LECHNER, Roman (2024): Insuring Electric Vehicles. A Growing Opportunity but with Near-Term Challenges. Swiss Re Institute. Online: https://www.swissre.com/institute/research/sigma-research/Economic-Insights/insuring-electric-vehicles.html

DE PREZ, Matt (2024): Tesla Model Y Was Europe’s Best-Selling Car in 2023. Fleet News, 15 February 2024. Online: https://www.fleetnews.co.uk/news/tesla-model-y-likely-to-be-europe-s-best-selling-car-in-2023

Deloitte (2024): 2024 Global Automotive Consumer Study. Key Findings: Global Focus Countries. Online: https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/pe/Documents/consumer-business/gx-deloittes-2024-global-automotive-consumer-study-january.pdf

DEMOLI, Yoann (2015): The Social Stratification of the Costs of Motoring in France (1984–2006). International Journal of Automotive Technology and Management, 15(3), 311–328. Online: https://doi.org/10.1504/IJATM.2015.070278

DRAGHI, Mario (2024): The Future of European Competitiveness. Part B: In-Depth Analysis and Recommendations. Online: https://commission.europa.eu/document/download/ec1409c1-d4b4-4882-8bdd-3519f86bbb92_en?filename=The%20future%20of%20European%20competitiveness_%20In-depth%20analysis%20and%20recommendations0.pdf

European Commission (2020): Sustainable and Smart Mobility Strategy. Putting European Transport on Track for the Future. COM(2020) 789 Final. Online: https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:52020DC0789

European Commission (2025): A Competitiveness Compass for the EU. COM(2025) 30 Final. Online: https://commission.europa.eu/document/download/10017eb1-4722-4333-add2-e0ed18105a34_en

European Commission (s. a): CO₂ Emission Performance Standards for Cars and Vans. Online: https://climate.ec.europa.eu/eu-action/transport/road-transport-reducing-co2-emissions-vehicles/co2-emission-performance-standards-cars-and-vans_en

European Court of Auditors (2024): Special Report 2024. Reducing Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Cars. Online: https://doi.org/10.2865/027026

European Environment Agency (2020): EU Greenhouse Gas Emissions Kept Decreasing in 2018, Largest Reductions in Energy Sector. Online: https://www.eea.europa.eu/highlights/eu-greenhouse-gas-emissions-kept

European Parliament (2023): CO2 Emissions from Cars: Facts and Figures (infographics). Online: https://www.europarl.europa.eu/topics/en/article/20190313STO31218/co2-emissions-from-cars-facts-and-figures-infographics

FROST, Rosie (2024): Higher Taxes and More Expensive Parking: How Is France Cracking Down on SUVs? Euronews, 17 January 2024. Online: https://www.euronews.com/green/2024/01/17/higher-taxes-and-more-expensive-parking-how-is-france-cracking-down-on-suvs?utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=green_newsletter&utm_medium=referral&insEmail=1&insNltCmpId=257&insNltSldt=10080&insPnName=euronewsfr&isIns=1&isInsNltCmp=1

HORVÁTH, András (2024): Kinek lesz erre pénze? Jövőre jelentősen drágulnak az új autók! [Who Will Have Money for This? New Cars Will Be Much More Expensive Next Year!] Online: https://www.autonavigator.hu/cikkek/kinek-lesz-erre-penze-jovore-jelentosen-dragulnak-az-uj-autok/

Hungarian Academy of Sciences (2014): Extreme Weather Events in Europe and Their Impact on National and EU Adaptation Strategies. Online: https://easac.eu/fileadmin/PDF_s/reports_statements/Extreme_Weather/Extreme_Weather_Hungarian.pdf

INGRAM, Richard (2023): Volkswagen ID.3 Review: Performance, Motor & Drive. Driving Electric, 7 August 2023. Online: https://www.drivingelectric.com/volkswagen/id3/performance

International Council on Clean Transportation (2017): Annual Report 2017. Online: http://theicct.org/sites/default/files/ICCT_Annual_Report_2017_final.pdf

International Council on Clean Transportation (2019): Fuel Economy in Major Car Markets. Online: https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/66965fb0-87c9-4bc7-990d-a509a1646956/Fuel_Economy_in_Major_Car_Markets.pdf

JEROME, Marty (2007): EU Wavers on Emissions Standards from German Lobbying. Online: https://www.wired.com/2007/08/eu-wavers-on-em/

JETIN, Bruno (2020): Who Will Control the Electric Vehicle Market? International Journal of Automobile Technology and Management, 20(2), 156–177. Online: https://doi.org/10.1504/IJATM.2020.108584

KSH (2022): Average Carbon Dioxide Emissions Per Kilometre of Newly Registered Passenger Cars. Hungarian Central Statistical Office (KSH). Online: https://ksh.hu/s/kiadvanyok/fenntarthato-fejlodes-indikatorai-2022/3-37

KSH (2025): Flash Estimate – Industry, November 2024 (second estimate). Hungarian Central Statistical Office (KSH). Online: https://www.ksh.hu/gyorstajekoztatok/ipa/ipa2411.html

LIBOREIRO, Jorge (2024): Brussels Breaks Impasse after EU Countries Fail to Agree on Chinese EV Tariffs. Euronews, 4 October 2024. Online: https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2024/10/04/brussels-breaks-impasse-after-eu-countries-fail-to-agree-on-chinese-ev-tariffs1

MOCK, Peter (2018): The Role of Standards in Reducing CO2 Emissions of Passenger Cars in the EU. The International Council on Clean Transportation, February 2018. Online: https://theicct.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Role_of_EU-CO2_Standard_20180212.pdf

National Assembly Office (2021): A közlekedés üvegházhatású gáz-kibocsátása [Greenhouse Emissions from Transport]. Infojegyzet, 57. Online: https://www.parlament.hu/documents/10181/39233854/Infojegyzet_2021_57_kozlekedes_uveghazhatas.pdf/7b7c93e8-3d76-dd68-142b-529f2d024871?t=1631863107831

ONYANGO, Brian (2024): How Much Does a Tesla Car Battery Weigh? (Model S, Model 3, Model X, and Model Y). Vehicle Freak, 8 April 2024. Online: https://vehiclefreak.com/how-much-does-a-tesla-car-battery-weigh-model-s-model-3-model-x-and-model-y/

PARDI, Tommaso (2022): Prospects and Contradictions of the Electrification of the European Automotive Industry: The Role of European Union Policy. International Journal of Automotive Technology and Management, 21(3), 162–179. Online: https://doi.org/10.1504/IJATM.2021.10039480

POSANER, Joshua (2023): Brussels and Berlin Strike Deal on 2035 Combustion-Engine Ban. Politico, 25 March 2023. Online: https://www.politico.eu/article/brussels-and-berlin-strike-car-engine-combustion-zero-emissions-ban-deal/

RANDALL, Chris (2025): EU Considers New Plug-In Hybrid Regulation after 2035. Electrive, 6 February 2025. Online: https://www.electrive.com/2025/02/05/eu-examines-new-plug-in-hybrid-registrations-after-2035/

RYAN, Andrew (2023): Do Electric Vehicles Really Cost Less than ICE Cars to Maintain? Fleet News, 15 May 2023. Online: https://www.fleetnews.co.uk/electric-fleet/policy/are-service-and-maintenance-costs-for-electric-vehicles-really-cheaper

SZEGEDI, László (2018): The Crisis Management of the "Dieselgate" - Transboundary (and) Crisis Driven Evolution of EU Executive Governance with or without Agencies? Európai Tükör – European Mirror, 21(Special Edition), 85–100.

SZEGEDI, László (2022): EU Expert Bodies in Light of the Glyphosate Saga and the Dieselgate Scandal. Cross-Sectoral Lessons to Be Learned in the Era of Emerging Risk Factors and Constant Crisis Management? Európai Tükör – European Mirror, 25(3–4), 93–116. Online: https://doi.org/10.32559/et.2022.3-4.5

SZŰCS, Gábor (2022): A gyártók többsége nem fizetett CO2 büntetést 2021-ben [Most Producers Did Not Pay a CO2 Penalty in 2021]. Online: https://villanyautosok.hu/2022/01/30/a-gyartok-tobbsege-nem-fizetett-co2-buntetest-2021-ben/

Thatcham Research (2024): Thatcham Research Explains New EU Vehicle Safety Regulation and What It Means for UK Drivers. Online: https://www.thatcham.org/thatcham-research-explains-new-eu-vehicle-safety-regulation-and-what-it-means-for-uk-drivers/

TIETGE, Uwe – DÍAZ, Sonsoles – MOCK, Peter – BANDIVADEKAR, Anup – DORNOFF, Jan –LIGTERINK, Norbert (2019): From Laboratory to Road. A 2018 Update of Official and “Real-World” Fuel Consumption and CO2 Values for Passenger Cars in Europe. Berlin: International Council on Clean Transportation. Online: https://publications.tno.nl/publication/34627546/AFklkW/TNO-2019-Laboratory.pdf

Transport & Environment (2007): Danger Ahead. Why Weight-Based CO2 Standards Will Make Europe’s Car Fleet Dirtier and Less Safe. Online: https://www.transportenvironment.org/uploads/files/2007-12_cars_co2_weight_footprint.pdf

Transport & Environment (2023): Small and Profitable: Why Affordable Electric Cars in 2025 Are Feasible. Online: https://www.transportenvironment.org/articles/small-and-profitable-why-affordable-electric-cars-in-2025-are-doable

Transport & Environment (2024a): Ever-Wider: Why Large SUVs Don’t Fit, and What to Do About It. Online: https://www.transportenvironment.org/discover/ever-wider-why-large-suvs-dont-fit-and-what-to-do-about-it/

Transport & Environment (2024b): Carmakers Are Failing to Deliver Affordable Electric Cars, Holding Back EV Adoption – Analysis. Online: https://www.transportenvironment.org/articles/carmakers-are-failing-to-deliver-affordable-electric-cars-holding-back-ev-adoption-analysis

Transport & Environment (2024c): Why the Car Industry Will Not Pay €15 Billion in Penalties in 2025. Online: https://www.transportenvironment.org/articles/why-the-car-industry-will-not-pay-eur15-billion-in-penalties-in-2025

VÁRKONYI, Gábor (2020): Becslések szerint jövőre 14.2 milliárdos büntetés vár az autóiparra az EU-ban [It Is Estimated that the Automotive Industry in the EU Will Face a 14.2 Billion Fine Next Year]. Online: https://varkonyigabor.blog.hu/2020/02/03/becslesek_szerint_jovore_14_2_milliardos_buntetes_var_az_autoiparra_az_eu-ban

VERVAEKE, Monique – CALABRESE, Giuseppe (2015): Prospective Design in the Automotive Sector and the Trajectory of the Bluecar Project: An Electric Car Sharing System. International Journal of Vehicle Design, 68(4), 245–264. Online: https://doi.org/10.1504/IJVD.2015.071083

Világgazdaság (2024): Sokkal több balesetet okoznak az elektromos autók, mint a benzinesek [Electric Cars Cause Much More Accidents than Petrol Cars]. Világgazdaság, 4 February 2024. Online: https://www.vg.hu/auto/2024/02/sokkal-tobb-balesetet-okoznak-az-elektromos-autok-mint-benzinesek

VILLAREAL, Axel (2011): The Social Construction of the Market for Electric Cars in France: Politics Coming to the Aid of Economics. International Journal of Automotive Technology and Management, 11(4), 326–339. Online: https://doi.org/10.1504/IJATM.2011.043165

WEINHARDT, Attila (2023): Nagy Márton: finanszírozási szerkezetváltás történik Magyarországon, jelentős lépésekre készül a kormány [Márton Nagy: The Government Is Preparing to Take Significant Steps to Restructure Financing in Hungary]. Portfolio, 16 February 2023. Online: https://www.portfolio.hu/uzlet/20230216/nagy-marton-finanszirozasi-szerkezetvaltas-tortenik-magyarorszagon-jelentos-lepesekre-keszul-a-kormany-597374

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.