Bayes-analízis alkalmazása a kockázatelemzésben

Abstract

According to data, terrorist activity tends to grow steadily, especially during the past 15 years. Terrorism became a global problem. Modern terrorism differs from the terrorism of the past. Nowadays terrorists have the opportunity to use innovative technologies. According to defence and protection this is an entirely new challenge for experts. The theory of risk and methods of risk analysis can be applied to assess the risk of terrorist activity and consequences. Mathematical methods, especially the probabilistic approach are widely applied for expressing the risk. The theory of Bayesian inference seems to be extremely suitable framework for this purpose. In this work Bayes-theory and its applications will be demonstrated in the context of terrorist’s threat.